UFC 279 Beforemath: I guess I will watch Chimaev vs. Diaz
It’s not an important fight. We all know how this will go!
This weekend there is UFC 270. It’s a bit odd of a main event as Khamzat Chimaev and Nate Diaz square off in a non-title fight. That’s it. That’s all you get. Tony Ferguson moves up to welterweight. Johnny Walker and Ion Cutelaba are fighting. But for the most part this card screams “really good fight night card” and doesn’t seem like a pay per view event. But today, we are breaking down the main event all the same. Let’s dive in to this week’s Beforemath!
UFC 279 Tale of the Tape
Nate Diaz is weird. He’s riding high off of his win over Conor McGregor from 2016. It’s a bit weird how his aura has stayed despite him being inactive and only getting one other win since then. But he’s managed to do so.
After beating McGregor, he went to the brink with Conor McGregor in the rematch which saw McGregor win a majority decision. Many to this day felt Diaz won. After that, Diaz returned in 2019 and beat the brakes off Anthony Pettis in a one sided decision. That’s when the BMF saga began.
After calling out Jorge Masvidal, Diaz was beat by Masvidal due to doctors stoppage so, basically, nobody saw that as a loss. And in his last fight, he was beat down by now-champion Leon Edwards until the last round where he caught the champ with a 1-2 and had Edwards on skates but never finished him. He lost the decision. Yet in everyone’s mind, Diaz is still an OG.
Khamzat Chimaev is the hottest rage in MMA. After coming in to the promotion going 3-0 and absorbing one significant strike, he took on Gilbert Burns at UFC 273 after some tough recovery with COVID.
In that fight, Chimaev was pushed to the brink and came out victorious. Chimaev struggled with Burns coming forward and was hesitant to go to the ground with the BJJ ace.
The main event of UFC 279 is pretty non-consequential in the grand terms of UFC PPVs unless Chimaev loses. But the fight could possibly fun. Let’s break it down!
Nate Diaz in an uphill battle
Nate Diaz comes into UFC 279 a +725 underdog which is absolutely insane. To put that in perspective, he was +350 against McGregor in the first fight and against Leon Edwards. Everyone is counting Nate Diaz out. To be honest, I am too. He’s really not made for Chimaev early on in this fight. Keyword in that sentence is “early on.” The path to victory against Chimaev lies in his best attribute: his cardio and toughness.
Against Burns, Chimaev slowed down considerably as the fight went on. That’s something fans need to keep an eye on with Nate Diaz. He is quite the reverse, as is famously known now. Diaz gets stronger the longer a fight goes on and he takes full advantage of it. It’s part of what makes him so dangerous: the ability to open up the cardio gap.
Diaz will also want to come forward against Chimaev, albeit not from the start. We know Chimaev likes to duck under his opponents punches to get the takedown. Early on, Diaz needs to concentrate on keeping the fight standing but not particularly engaging. He will need Chimaev to get tired as soon as possible. So letting him come forward and throwing punches will be a great tactic to take.
Also for Nate Diaz, his body work will be very important. To drag this fight out into the later rounds where he can thrive, Diaz will look to work the body. I expect to see plenty of punches to the body to take the wind and speed out of Khamzat Chimaev.
Khamzat Chimaev: Kingmaking
With Nate Diaz is expected to leave the UFC after UFC 279, this fight is expected to be a bit more of a boost for the fan-favorite Khamzat Chimaev. Let the Diaz fans tune in to Chimaev beating up Nate Diaz and maybe they will watch Khamzat Chimaev in the future.
Khamzat Chimaev must be licking his chops with Nate Diaz. He will ALWAYS come forward. Chimaev will be looking at Diaz as an opportunity for smesh. Diaz is quite susceptible to takedowns and always has been. Let’s take a look at how Leon Edwards managed to throw Diaz down to the ground with ease in their fight at UFC 263.
This scenario happened multiple times in the fight. Nate Diaz (1) came forward and Edwards got the clinch against the fence. Notice how the highlighted arm of Diaz is up and not tucked away which gives Edwards a way to go to the back. Edwards will do just that. (2) Edwards ducked under Diaz’ arm and (3) got to his back. (4) On the back and pushing damage Diaz into the fence, Edwards looks for the inside leg trip but Diaz is keen on it and blocks the knee. But with Diaz being off balance, Edwards is going to sneak his other leg behind Diaz. (5) Nate Diaz is off balance and with Edwards having his leg behind Diaz, Edwards can pull Diaz away from his center of balance and (6) get the fight to the ground.
Seeing how Diaz fought against Edwards, it’s easy to see a path to victory for Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 279.
Chimaev also needs to make sure not to play into the mentioned Diaz gameplan above. Should he get drawn into a fire fight, Nate Diaz can rock Chimaev. He needs to avoid the body work of Diaz to keep the cardio in tandem. Against Burns, Chimaev got hurt going forward and if this fight becomes like that, Diaz can put the hands on Chimaev. Stick to mauling him. It’s tiring if you’re the one doing the mauling.
Chimaev will have to keep in mind that while Diaz is great on the bottom that he hasn’t submitted anyone since he clubbed and subbed McGregor in 2016. The leg locks will be a danger for Chimaev but at this point if he doesn’t know how to defend a leg lock he deserves to be tapped with one.
All in all it seems like this post is giving Diaz much more of a chance than he actually has. Keep in mind it’s my job to show the path to victory in these Beforemath articles and also to show the dangers a fighter is facing. Basically what I’m saying is bet the house on Khamzat Chimaev to win at UFC 279.