UFC 280 Beforemath: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev
Is this the best fight the UFC could make right now?
This weekend we are graced with a pure fight fan’s dream matchup in the main event of UFC 280. With Islam Makhachev seen as an extension of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s title reign, many are rooting for Charles Oliveira. With there being so many good fights in this upcoming card, I figured we would do a multi part Beforemath breaking down all the juicy bits! Let’s begin.
UFC 280 Tale of the Tape
Coming into UFC 280, Islam Makhachev’s title run has been questioned. He currently has one win over a ranked opponent, which is Arman Tsarukyan in 2019. Before that, in 2015, Makhachev suffered his first and only career loss to Adriano Martins and has been perfect since then. His last four fights have not been over high caliber fighters but Makhachev had shined in all of the matchups. Drew Dober, Thiago Moises, Dan Hooker and Bobby Green have all fallen to the Dagestani standout and Makhachev looks to bring the title back home to his home of Dagestan as well as a title back to his gym, AKA.
Charles Oliveira has almost the exact opposite resume of Makhavhev. Early in his career he struggles and lost many fights, mainly due to lack of experience. After a failed stint at 145, Oliveira’s return to lightweight has been one fight short of perfection. But since taking the belt against Michael Chandler, Oliveira has seemed perfect. Do Bronx has put away Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje in back to back fights. While he missed weight in his last fight, forcing the UFC to strip him of his title, many still see Oliveira as the defending champion. On Saturday, he defends his metaphorical title.
Charles Oliveira: The Real Champion
The evolution of Charles Oliveira has been incredibly fun to watch. Since his failed featherweight bid, he’s come out and become the champion, three Fights of the Night, 12 Performances of the Night, 3 Submissions of the Night, the most finishes in UFC history, the most submissions in lightweight, featherweight and UFC history, the most Performance of the Night awards and a partridge in a pear tree.
But in his last three fights is where Oliveira had been most lethal. Impossibly hard to put away, despite being finished, anyone who has hurt Oliveira has done so standing up, only to get dinged in the return fire. Oliveira put the gas pedal on Dustin Poirier, landing to the body with knees and punches that absolutely zapped the cardio of his foe. That and the forward pressure makes Charles Oliveira incredibly tough to deal with. But he cannot rely on cardio alone to beat Makhachev at UFC 280. Makhachev, too, is a fantastic cardio machine.
In addition to the cardio differences that Oliveira will have to make a point to focus on, the grappling is another area. Common thought would scream “STAY AWAY YOU BEAUTIFUL BRAZILIAN CHAMPION!” to Oliveira if he even thought of grappling with Makhachev. But if you return to the Arman Tsarukyan fight, you will see that Makhachev, while good, is not perfect at defensive wrestling. Oliveira has better finishing than Tsarukyan and could capitalize in transitions similar to what Tsarukyan found against Makhachev.
When I interviewed Garry Tonon for My MMA News, I asked him, with his specific skillset, how would he approach a fighter with the caliber wrestling as Khabib. With Oliveira and Makhachev being a similar matchup on the ground, I’ll share a section of that here:
“It’s funny that people’s answer is to knock him out. But not too many people were able to do that, we’re they?” Gary Tonon said laughing. “It’s easier said than done. They’re like, ‘Aw man, striking is his kryptonite.’ Maybe he’s not the greatest striker but he understands enough to nullify other great strikers to the point where it’s difficult to do the damage that they would do to other people. And that in itself is a quality that makes it knocking him out is not the easy answer. I’m sure that’s how McGregor felt like, “Aw yeah, he sucks at striking so I’m going to beat his ass.”
“He wants to grapple. It’s not like Khabib doesn’t want to grapple. He just wants to grapple in a little bit of a different way that I want to grapple. He would prefer to grapple in a way that he can punch me in the face and he usually uses submissions as an icing on the cake more than he uses them as a bread and butter. Submissions to him are like not that I’ve battered your face for fu*king three rounds and then give up your arm or your neck then maybe I’ll submit you or maybe I’ll keep punching your face.”
“I can’t remember what fight it was but he was on his back for a moment of time and he threw up a triangle or something. You don’t get to see it too often and a lot of people may think that he’s super weak there. I don’t think he’s weak there either. I like to believe that he also has a decent bottom game. I don’t think that’s necessarily a hole there either.”
“I think most likely that leg locks are the easiest way to submit him. You wouldn’t even need to [pull guard]. Let him take you down enter his legs as he takes you down. That would probably be the way to go about it. I think leg entanglements would probably be the way to deal with him simply because for most guys, even good grapplers in MMA it tends to be a deficit of theirs to be high level at leg locks. The biggest discrepancy in skills between me and him would probably be in leg entanglements.”
So as you can see in that lengthy statement, Tonon believes that the leg locks are his key to a hypothetical victory over Khabib Nurmagomedov. For Charles Oliveira, a leg entanglement can be a very real path to victory. With Islam Makhachev a southpaw and Oliveira an orthodox fighter, the lead legs will be there together. It will be a matter of locking these two men in the cage and seeing who grabs the leg first.
Islam Makhachev: Sus Resume
Islam Makhachev comes into UFC 280 with an ungodly amount of hype. That’s part of the Khabib rub, which is incedentially part of the McGregor rub, but we won’t dive into that. Makhachev faces an opponent the caliber that neither he nor his training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov has faced in either of their careers.
Makhachev’s suspect resume (sus, as the kids say) really gives me pause for concern here. The Tsarukyan win is his best and there, he didn’t look near as dominant as he had against other opponents. I feel like Oliveira will give him more trouble than most like to admit.
For Makhachev, using that southpaw advantage with the lead leg to get Oliveira to the ground and, here’s the kicker, control him. While it’s customary to “smesh” his opponents as is Dagestani tradition, doing so with Oliveira will only give his opponent a chance to transition, reverse, and chase submissions off his back. Instead, Makhachev will want to pin Oliveira against the fence, taking away the shrimp that way, utilize the cringe-named Dagestani handcuff, and limit mobility for Oliveira before he starts to land any ground and pound.
Makhachev, unlike Khabib, tries to be a striker and a grappler. Now will not be the time for that. In the past, Makhachev has been knocked out by staying on the feet. Instead he needs to think grapple first. Makhachev will have to avoid striking with Oliveira. Getting dinged will lead to the same fate as Gaethje and Poirier met against Oliveira. Get to the fence, chain wrestle, and don’t give Oliveira a chance. Easier said than done.
With Makhachev and Oliveira being such a perfect matchup, the fight is bound to be incredibly exciting, hard fought, and most importantly, cool. This is MMA at it’s peak.