UFC Jacksonville Beforemath: Will Ilia Topuria Rise to the Occasion?
Or can Josh Emmett find that massive right hand?
Ilia Topuria is one of the most interesting up and comers to come through the featherweight division in recent years. This weekend, he will challenge former interim-title challenger Josh Emmett. The bout takes place in Jacksonville, Florida and promises to offer fireworks.
So today, we will take some time to look at the fight between Emmett and Topuria. Let’s get down and dirty with the newest issue of Beforemath!
Josh Emmett: Don’t Get Overwhelmed
Josh Emmett is an odd fighter. He’s a great wrestler and hits like a truck. But his volume isn’t there and he gets overwhelmed when volume comes back his way. Against a volume fighter like Topuria, this could end in disaster. Emmett will have to be conscious not to get lulled into waiting for the one shot. Topuria will go full blast for five rounds and Emmett risks getting left behind as the fight goes longer.
Since his brutal loss to Jeremy Stephens in 2018, Emmett has been on a tear. He won five straight but saw that streak snapped by Yair Rodriguez for the interim title. Bouncing back is important for Emmett’s title hopes. He hits heavy and can put anyone’s lights out but finding the necessary punches is what cost him the the Rodriguez fight.
Emmett will want to slow down Topuria and will need to rely on the body work to get him there. Emmett is not that big of a body puncher and the only time he’s gone to the body reliably was against Calvin Kattar in 2022 and Scott Holtzman in 2016. This shows us that Emmett is capable of targeting the midsection of his opponents but chooses to go for the head instead. And who can blame him? With the cinder blocks in his hands, anyone can catch a bomb and be put out.
For Emmett to have his best path to victory, he will have to break out some new tools for Topuria. First, we need to look at where Topuria is not good. In the heat of the moment, Topuria will often put himself out of position and over extend on big looping punches.
Against Bryce Mitchell, we see Topuria way over extended when he has Mitchell backed against the fence. Here, Emmett can create openings by simply letting Topuria swing for the fences. But how to do that? For that, Emmett will have to set up his huge right and utilize feints.
Setting up the shot, Kevin Holland had to only throw nine punches to the body. But it worked perfect. Making the read (1), Holland will literally slap at his knee. The options here are a knee tap, picking up the single leg and a multitude of other things. We can see in the next frame (2) that Means was thinking “jab.” He lowers his right hand and tries to slap it away. Holland picks up on this and (3) blasts Means with a right hand. This is the exact type of punch that Emmett is great at. Holland would go back to the well with this again for the drop and (4) throw a jab down low. Means would try to push Holland away and miss off the hip. (5) Kevin Holland then returns with a flush right hand that knocks down Means.
Topuria is so high octane that he will be eager to exchange in the pocket with Emmett. These types of level changes will do him well and help him connect with that dangerous right hand.
Josh Emmett is also not that big of a kicker but will need to be against Topuria. With all the power in his hands, I would assume that Emmett can kick quite hard. In fact when looking at old footage, it seems as Emmett doesn’t seem to commit to them in volume or power.
Looking at how Emmett can work feints into his kicking game, we look at Geoff Neal against Vicente Luque. After blasting the leg a few times, Neal knew he was getting reactions out of Luque. (1) To start, Neal was at a safe range and set up for a kick, selling it a decent amount. (2) Neal twists his knee as if he’s going to kick and it will draw a jab out of Luque. (3) Neal will slip that punch and crack Luque with a left.
The key to this, however, will be Emmett actually kicking the leg to start with. If he shows a feint without establishing the threat of the low kick, Topuria will just come forward and smash him out as he’s feinting. Emmett will need to actually land first before threatening with the feint or it’s all for nothing.
At the end of the day, I feel like I’m asking for Josh Emmett to be a completely different fighter. Adding all these things to his game is not what got him to where he is today. But to be the best in a division like featherweight, constant improvement and addition to the toolbox is necessary. It’s a must.
Ilia Topuria: Welcome to the Show
Ilia Topuria is such an interesting fighter. He’s a great hitter with a grappling background. He’s fended off grapplers of all types. Damon Jackson, Ryan Hall, Bryce Mitchell: all grapplers Topuria has battered in one way or another. Emmett is capable of wrestling but will not likely rely on it before Topuria beats him up on the feet. This means that Topuria needs to be weary of the right hand.
Topuria will want to hit heavy, hit the body, and hit often. When watching the bout with Yair Rodriguez, Emmett was overwhelmed with volume and speed. Topuria is likely not the faster fighter so he will have to keep Emmett while navigating the deep waters of Emmett’s power.
Topuria likes to move his head in a Mike Tyson-like fashion. Weaving in and out he often chains together punches from his movement that plays into his hands.
Looking at his fight with Bryce Mitchell, (1) Topuria keeps his stance low and will weave to the left and right, keeping his head off the center line. (2) Weaving to the left will open up the left hand for Topuria and the (3) right hand is opened up with a weave to that direction. This keeps Topuria safe by keeping him off the center line while advancing and opening up strikes.
Topuria doesn’t just weave his head to get in the pocket and clinch up. He is looking for strikes at all times.
Building off of what we just discussed, we look at Topuria (1 & 2) weaving his way into the pocket with Mitchell. He dips and slips, loading up his hands until Mitchell throws a shot. Then, on the dip to his right, (3) and Topuria throws a right uppercut. The twist of the hips from the uppercut loads up the left hand, of which (4) Topura throws a left hook. Again, this naturally sets up a right hand again and Topuria finally lands a clean punch with a right cross.
Chaining these punches together is something Topuria will lean on as he does in every fight. Emmett fights well when he can fight at his pace so keeping him in survival mode trying to fend off a relentless attack will benefit Topuria greatly.
Topuria likes to go to the body and that worked wonders for Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a kick heavy fighter when it comes to body work and Topuria will utilize punches. Topuria doesn’t kick. He never has and adding them could do him some good. But punching the body will work near as good and Topuria is already good at that.
Once Yair Rodriguez had Emmett on the back foot, tired from the body work, he utilized his grappling and choked out Emmett. Topuria has one sub by submission in the UFC but eight of his overall wins came by sub. Topuria is a submission threat.
In the off chance that Emmett shoots, or if Topuria fancies it, taking down Emmett could be an option, though Emmett is a tough out when it comes to takedowns.
When he fought Mitchell, Topuria had Mitchell begging for a takedown. (1) Mitchell was desperate and was on both knees, giving Topuria the over/under. Topuria grabbed the overhook with his left hand and punched underneath with his right. (2) Topuria pulled Mitchell across his body and slammed him hard to the mat.
These types of exchanges are something I can see from Topuria as he begins to frustrate Emmett and forces Emmett to get out of his comfort zone. But Ilia Topuria will have to stay safe in this fight. Emmett can turn out the lights at any moment in the fight and if he gets caught like he did against Jai Herbert, Topuria could have a bad night.
This is the biggest moment of Topuria’s career and often times we see fighters like this rise to the occasion. But Emmett is tough. He’s a heavy handed slugger and isn’t going to back down from a challenge like Topuria. He’s been to hell, Topuria hasn’t. This one is a proving ground and one you cannot miss.