UFC Paris Beforemath: Bienvenue en France
Will we get another shooey or will Gane be a master striker again?
This weekend, the UFC is making it's France debut after the country finally legalized the sport in 2020. With a host of pandemic restrictions blocking the way since the sport was legalized, Dana White and company are finally getting their foot in the French door. With that, he's bringing a heavyweight main event that could be exciting or a masterclass. Ciryl Gane is back after suffering his first career loss to Francis N'Gannou in January as he's ready to take on my pound for pound king in Tai Tuivasa.
UFC Paris Tale of the Tape
Coming into the fight, Tai Tuivasa is on a tear through the UFC's heavyweight division. After losing three straight fights, Tuivasa was actually cut from the UFC in August of 2020. He was then called back up to fight two months later against UFC veteran Stefan Struve. Tuivasa chinned the giant and it was shoey-town for everyone. He went on to beat Harry Hunsucker, obliterate everyone's favorite fighter in Greg Hardy, and then went on an even better run. His last two fights were the best wins of his career as he knocked out Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis. But as the old saying goes, "Mo' shooeys, mo' problems" and now he is matched up with a potential nightmare of a fight with Ciryl Gane.
Gane, on the other hand, is coming off a close loss to N'Gannou after starting his MMA career 10-0. Until that N'Gannou fight, Gane has fought perfect in the octagon. Before losing to N'Gannou, he put on masterclasses against Jairzinho Rozenstruick, Alexander Volkov, and Derrick Lewis. But N'Gannou showed that he can wrestle in their fight and took down Gane who was seemingly helpless on his back. So now, Gane looks to rebound from his loss and get back in the title picture.
Tai Tuivasa: Make it Ugly
For Tai Tuivasa, UFC Paris will either be a come to Jesus moment or a jaw dropping performance. Gane is the best striker Tuivasa will likely ever face and the fight will be hard fought for the Aussie native. Gane is tricky and stays out of danger's way pretty well. But Tuivasa is stuck between a rock and a hard place against Ciryl Gane. He cannot go in there and fight unruly at the risk of getting picked apart. But he can't also go in there and let Gane take his time. The French native fights even better when he has room to breathe. So what do?
Make it ugly. That's the best bet for Tai Tuivasa. He will need to be ready to take some punishment but with that punishment, Tuivasa needs to deal out how own. Pin Gane to the fence. Kick his knees. Elbows in the clinch. Tuivasa will want to be as close to Gane as he can for as long as he can. In these clinch situations, Tuivasa will want to make the best of his time there by working the body and zapping the cardio of Gane.
Once the fight gets into the later rounds, if Tuivasa hasn't chinned him like he's going to want to do, he can begin to look for the single leg and double leg against the fence. We saw N'Gannou take down Gane in rounds four and five to win him the fight. Now it's time for Tuivasa to do the same. But in Tuivasa's case he will need to deal out some damage. While N'Gannou controlled Gane the entire time, Tuivasa will likely be down on the scorecards and need a finish if he gets to this point in round four. But hes got some brutal ground and pound. Although, he will want to be weary of the submissions of Gane. His first fights in the UFC saw Gane win by arm triangle and heel hook. Don't think he can't pull that out the bag either. But if Tuivasa makes it ugly and actually tries to get to the ground, the French might be introduced to the shooey and then we are in for a good time...
Ciryl Gane: His Fight to Lose
As much as I like Tai Tuivasa and call him the best pound for pound fighter, I have to be honest when saying that he is nothing more than a meme fighter. He shouldn't be on a five fight win streak the way he fights yet here we are. In all honesty, this is Ciryl Gane's fight to lose. This is a "sorry you got wrestled against a power puncher" fight and Tuivasa will likely not wrestle. He never really has. So Gane just has to fight his fight despite what Tuivasa does. That means stay safe with his footwork, pick his shots, and go as long as it takes to get the finish or get to the final bell.
A lot of people call Tai Tuivasa "Mark Hunt 2.0" because of the style similarities. But where Tuivasa and Hunt differentiate is the chin. Hunt ate a head kick from Cro Cop. Tuivasa was wobbled by Greg Hardy. Gane has all the options in the world to hurt Tuivasa with a cross or high kick as Tuivasa bum rushes in and looks for a head shot. It will either be a short night at the office for Gane, or it will be a five round masterpiece once again. Gane is smart and the best striker the UFC has ever seen in it's heavyweight division. He will undoubtedly rely on that going into the fight at UFC Paris.
Another option for Gane is the body. Let's be honest, Tai Tuivasa is a little pudgy. He's got a belly. Punch his body, kick it, and watch him melt away like ice cream on the stove top. It won't take many and it won't take long. Going to the body early will help Gane later in the fight from being caught with something wild from Tuivasa. It's a pretty simple thing for Gane to set up feints up top and go to the body. The roundhouse to the body will lower Tuivasa's hands to open up the high kick, destroy his liver, and zap the cardio. It's a triple edged sword, if that's even a thing.
This should be a homecoming for Ciryl Gane. While Jon Jones is likely fighting Stipe Miocic and the winner of that is fighting Francis N'Gannou if/when he returns, Gane will likely need one more win to get back to the title. Until then, he will have to work with what he's got in front of him and will first have to deny the French of a shooey. That's the real tragedy here.