UFC Vegas 73 Beforemath: Can Mackenzie Dern Find The Necessary Takedowns?
đ¤źââď¸You canât win with 11% takedown accuracy
The UFC returns to the APEX this weekend with a womenâs strawweight fight as our headliner. The ADCC no-gi World Champion Mackenzie Dern will take on Angels Hill, a former WKA kickboxing champion. Styles make matchups and Dern vs. Hill reminds us of the old school days where savateur Gerard Gordeau took on sumo rikishi Teila Tuli to open up the UFC 1 card.
With all that said, our burning question today is: Will Mackenzie Dern be able to actually take down Angels Hill? On todayâs edition of Beforemath we will explore just that.
Angela Hill: Stick and Jab
Angela Hill (15-12, 5 KOs) has been a mainstay for the UFC since her return to the promotion in 2017. There have been many upâs and downâs but at the end of the day, Hill has always been there.
If we are being honest, not much about Angela Hill is remarkable in a literal sense. Sheâs not going out to be exciting and she doesnât produce knockouts. She does the basics good and has some holes. But when she loses, Hill doesnât get battered. The decision always makes you raise an eyebrow because she could have won that fight.
One thing Iâve noticed about Hill is how she keeps her feet under her and doesnât get out of position with over extending on her punching too, which is conducive to not getting taken down. Dern struggles to get to the ground and not giving her too much work with would help Hill stay out of clinches. The only times Hill has been finished was by submission and staying out of that danger is priority number one.
Dern has a brawling style on the feet and Hill needs to be prepared to fight off the back foot for a good portion of this fight. Dern will come forward and she will look for big, looping punches to get her into a clinch to find a way for the takedown.
For Hill, not backing up in a straight line will be her best friend. Against Xiaonan Yan, we saw Yan have success by not staying on the center line against Dern. If Hill can avoid going straight back and pot shot Dern from different angles, she will have success in this fight. The longer this fight goes, the more it will favor Hill if she stays the course.
Then of course, there is the usual stuff we talk about with modern MMA meta. Hill will want to hit the body to gas Dern, kick the leg to slow her down and make the takedowns much harder. All the jazz that frequent Beforemath readers already know all about.
Hill is 38 years of age. This is a young womanâs sport. Against Dern, she faces real challenges that might be too much to overcome. But for Angela Hill, not even letting those challenges come up is something thatâs within her wheelhouse. A win gets her back into the top ten. And while she is long in the tooth, Angela Hill can still veteran her way into contention once and for all.
Mackenzie Dern: You have to get takedowns
Hereâs a fun fact someone told me: only two fighters have ever attempted to submit Angela Hill. Both of them are the only two to finish Hill. Mackenzie Dern (12-3, 7 Subs) will try to make it three at the APEX. Hill may not be the top tier matchup that Dern is accustomed to getting when she steps into the cage. But when she does, she generally struggles. Xiaonan Yan, Marina Rodriguez, and Amanda Ribas turned out to be good fighters after beating Dern. Hill is a dangerous matchup that could send the former ADCC championâs career spiraling if not taken seriously.
Itâs not so much a secret anymore. Mackenzie Dern is absolutely dreadful when it comes to taking her opponents down. For someone so dangerous once she gets to the ground, Dern has shot a paltry 11% on her takedowns in her UFC run. But there is room for optimism. In her last fight against Xiaonan Yan, Dern had two takedowns. On 11 attempts. An absolute miserable performance.
Dern has had to get creative in the past on these takedowns by using the age old method of pulling guard. Not particularly the highest percentage attempt but itâs worked well at some points.
When looking at the takedown with Tecia Torres, or the guard pull specifically, Dern (1) had to first reverse a clinch against the fence with Torres. After pressing her to the fence, Dern could begin to work and she decided to (2) jump guard. Notice how Dern used her feet to post on the cage and tried to drag down Torres, albeit to no avail. (3) Dern would then wrap up Torres and get the fight to the ground.
To do this, although not pictured, Dern attacked the kimura as Torres rested against the fence. After fighting with the grip, Dern managed to tip over Torres and get to the ground.
Now the gimmicky crap is cool but wont consistently win you fight. What Dern will need to win this fight is high percentage shots. We need to look at whatâs worked in the past against Hill and how Dern can implement in her game plan. For that, we look to a submission-first fighter, like Dern, in Virna Jandiroba in her fight with Angela Hill.
Against Hill, Jandiroba had success getting to the ground. In our second figure above, we see (1) Jandiroba managed to change levels and get in deep on a takedown attempt. Notice the wide step, almost a freestyle-esque. This was important to get in deep and underneath Hillâs punches. (2) Jandiroba manages to have the heads up to wrap both of her hands around the legs of Hill. This lets her (3) take her right leg around the outside of Hills. This provides another trip point for Jandiroba. (4) Jandiroba will then push through and secure a takedown.
Mackenzie Dern will have to find these types of takedowns to actually have a shot in this fight. Hill will not want to stay in the clinch. She will do everything she can to avoid the clinch. It is going to be Dernâs responsibility to get to the mat where she is best at.