UFC Vegas 75 Beforemath: Will Marvin Vettori Capitalize on Created Positions?
💥 Or will Cannonier finally crack Vettori’s chin?
This weekend, we get more middleweight action with a top five matchup. Both Jared Cannonier and Marvin Vettori look to make a case for another title shot with a win on the weekend. Vettori is an indestructible force with an iron chin and Cannonier has a nuclear arsenal attached to his shoulders.
Today we are looking at that matchup and in typical Beforemath fashion we are going over the matchup and see what kind of path to victory both Cannonier and Vettori may have.
Jared Cannonier cannot rely on his power alone
Jared Cannonier (16-6, 9 KOs & 3 subs) is a shredded power puncher. Coming down from heavyweight all the way to middleweight, a lot of his power is still there. His UFC run has been somewhat spotty but middleweight is truly his home. Since his middleweight debut in 2018, Cannonier has beat some of middleweight’s best all while losing to the elite. 6-2 in the division, his only losses are to former champion Robert Whittaker and current two time champion Israel Adesanya. After his loss to Adesanya, he bounced back with a close split decision win over Sean Strickland at UFC Vegas 66.
In his more recent fights, Cannonier has started as an evolutionary transformation that sees him going from being the power puncher to a smarter fighter with more in his tool belt. After losing to Whittaker, he’s done that and we’ve seen new things come from his new tool belt. We will overlook the Adesanya fight. Anything Cannonier could have learned and implemented in that fight was already forgotten by The Last Stylebender.
Cannonier fights smarter, uses his footwork to get him in good positions and we actually see Cannonier setting traps against opponents like Strickland and Brunson. While he’s not been able to put together the power with the footwork just yet, Cannonier is getting close.
Against Sean Strickland, a similar jab heavy fighter, Cannonier switched stances on the step in to close the gap and get into the pocket. (1) Starting out in orthodox (left hand/foot forward), Cannonier steps in with his rear leg to show Strickland a huge right hand. He even (2) dips down as if to leap into the punch. This causes Strickland to instinctively raise his hands. In typical Strickland fashion, he (3) parry’s down at the left hand that Cannonier flashes and this opens up the lane for a (4) lead right hook, similar to how Pereira set up Strickland with the opposite blow.
The reason this works so well is because of how prone Strickland is to react to any big motion thrown at him. With Cannonier making huge steps in and showing a left cross, Strickland can only hold out on parrying for so long. Vettori is not so predictable and doesn’t bite on these types of feints all the time. He’s not immune, as we saw against Adesanya, and often he just blocks the punches with his head. Cannonier will have to land clean to get the respect from Vettori to get any sort of meaningful reaction out of him.
With Vettori’s iron chin, which basically makes him invincible against anything, is likely his best asset so for Cannonier, body work will be his better, though not best, friend. Going to the body will lower Vettori’s hands and make blocking Cannonier’s bigger shots that much harder.
Vettori also likes to plod forward. But if Cannonier can catch him with some cleaner shots, he could have the opportunity to back Vettori up. Once Cannonier gets someone to the fence, he generally likes to take his time and make his opponents make a mistake.
Going back to that Sean Strickland fight, we see how Cannonier set Strickland up against the fence to help immobilize Strickland. In that fight, Cannonier was 24 of 35 on the low kicks. Cannonier actually does throw a decent amount of low kicks and Beforemath readers will know that for MMA right now, I am a big fan of them. Slowing your opponent down, taking away their power, and even stopping your foe are all benefits you can gain from kicking your opponent’s legs.
In the figure above, we see Cannonier actually faking an exit for Strickland, guiding him out the side where he wants to kick. (1) Jared Cannonier would push Strickland back to the fence and Strickland, who has shown in the past that he plans to stay nowhere near the fence in this fight, wants very badly to leave. (2) Cannonier drops a little low, dipping to his left, and makes Strickland think a left hook is coming. The way out is to the left. But this is exactly what Cannonier wants and (3) as Strickland leaves, Cannonier smashes him with the low kick.
Marvin Vettori isn’t the most technical striker in a sense, but with the nature of a southpaw versus orthodox matchup, Cannonier will have to rely on his trickery and power combined to get past Vettori. Kicking from a southpaw stance could give Cannonier some benefit and I actually look for him to go to southpaw more than usual this fight. Cannonier has a tough fight ahead. But that said, so does Marvin Vettori…
Marvin Vettori: The Pride of Italy
Here’s a fun stat, Vettori’s last four opponents have been Roman Dolidze, Robert Whittaker, Paulo Costa, and Israel Adesanya. They all have gone an astonishing 82 of 84 on the low kicks combined. Adesanya is the only one who missed the leg kicks while throwing half of them in total. Knowing that Cannonier likes to come out and kick, Vettori is going to have to do something about that. Check the low kick, Marvin. When they kick, pick your leg up. If you don’t it will be a long, long night of crippling immobility.
Checking the kick isn’t the only way to keep a fighter from kicking either. There’s also backing them up and coming forward. Putting a fighter on the back foot is a good way to keep a fighter from being comfortable enough to kick and it’s hard enough to do so. Vettori is fond of the double jab to cross and this is a great tool to back someone up with.
Doubling up on the jab works great to catch someone slacking and to back them up all while having an opportunity for a strong cross. As seen in the GIF above, a deep step in on a second jab, after your opponent has reacted by pulling backwards to the first jab, is extra effective and can open up the cross.
With Vettori having such a strong chin, he’s not scared to be in the pocket with someone. He often does his best work there. On top of that, we’ve seen Jared Cannonier make some bad decisions in the past in the pocket that had him taken down. He’s made some good decision too, but if Vettori is betting on his chin and trying to pile on damage, he will have to go through the fire and flames to do so.
Once again, we look at Strickland. In this exchange, (1) Sean Strickland decided he wasn’t stepping back and Cannonier was coming forward. As Cannonier (2) throws an overhand right, Strickland gets behind his lead shoulder and actually rolls with the punch while looking for a left hook. The combo works nice together and can be quite effective if you have good timing. Notice how Cannonier’s left hand is down, however. While Rolling, Sean Strickland picks up on this and (3) nails Cannonier with a right cross.
Vettori and Teofimo?
Vettori hasn’t shown much of a roll and likes to lean back instead. Vettori needs to be careful of this and not get caught leaning or he risks Cannonier stepping through a punch, like discussed earlier, and bunched over.
With this being a southpaw versus orthodox matchup for the most part, there are some nuances that could make or break this fight. Last weekend, we were treated to a boxing masterclass with Teofimo Lopez dethroning incumbent junior welterweight champion Josh Taylor, a southpaw. Vettori is the southpaw in this case but the techniques work just the same, only mirrored. Teofimo provides a great template on how to handle an open-stanced matchup like the one Vettori faces this weekend.
Jared Cannonier is likely going to want to use his size to his advantage. For Marvin Vettori, the smaller fighter, keeping Cannonier off of him for will be important. Teofimo Lopez deals with this in a rather MMA manner. In the last figure, we see Taylor (1) step in for the outside advantage and overwhelm Lopez. (2) As Taylor steps in, Lopez keeps his lead arm between he and Taylor. Lopez then physically (3) pushes Taylor off and away to keep the distance on his terms.
Now this isn’t fool proof and doesn’t necessarily stop a takedown. This path would be better suited if Cannonier is insistent on getting in the pocket and landing shots. If Cannonier wants a takedown, then the usual defense will be ideal.
We mentioned the outside foot advantage earlier and that is something that Vettori uses well. Vettori plagued Paulo Costa with this.
Early in the fight, Vettori established control of the outside foot position on Costa and it really threw things off for Costa. (1) Jabbing to step in and not get return fired, Marvin Vettori will (2) hop in with his lead foot to the outside of Costa. This lines the left hand of Vettori up and Costa can either cover up, circle into the punch, or circle backwards over the tripping point of Vettori’s lead leg. Costa eats a left and to avoid any power shots coming back his way, (3) Vettori pivots out to his right and away from the power right of Costa.
Circling away from the power hand will be incredibly important for Marvin Vettori. Cannonier hits harder than anyone he’s ever faced. Before Vettori’s body work starts to kick in, another staple of the Marvin Vettori game plan, he will want to make sure to stay clear of the big punches from Cannonier.
Circling back to the double jab from earlier and the outside foot position and combining it all in a pot making a nice roux, we come to our final diagram.
Vettori will inevitably back Cannonier up with all the activity like jabs and crosses, crowding with the footwork, and body work, and will (1) be in a position like he is against Costa above. Costa is leaning against the fence and Vettori will step into the pocket. Instead of stepping in on the jab, Vettori (2) will split the guard with a lead uppercut underneath Costa’s guard. He will then (3) step in and overwhelm Costa. With the outside foot position and against the fence, Costa can only exit to the right.
Costa did a great job framing off of Vettori to exit that way and Vettori didn’t have an opportunity to throw. But it will be a necessity for Vettori to capitalize on these positions he’s created. He has to know where his opponent can go. Like Cannonier kicking where Strickland will have gone like we talked about in a previous section, Vettori will have to do just that.
The path to Adesanya is long and in all honesty, Vettori has longer than most having lost to Adesanya twice already. But knocking off a contender like Cannonier just eliminates one more option for the champ to choose from.